You can still win a Nobel Prize

A few years ago I came across a quote attributed to the reknowned physicist (and Nobel laureate) Albert Einstein. Unlike many quotes misattributed to him, this one was genuine. What I found most striking was its pessimistic tone:

“A person who has not made his great contribution to science before the age of thirty will never do so”

— Albert Einstein

Being a scientist myself this didn’t seem quite right. Acquiring sufficient knowledge to make an impact takes years (or perhaps decades) of experience. I’m not sure when Einstein made this remark, but my guess is that it was shortly after his annus mirabilis (“miracle year”) where, at the age of 26, he published a series of four papers that changed the foundations of modern physics. Yet despite his early success, Einstein continued to produce influential work throughout his life.

So do a scientist’s productive years have an expiration date? Rather than going by intuition I turned to data on Nobel laureates compiled by the Jones and Weinberg at the National Bureau of Economic Research. The authors analyzed biographical data of the 535 Nobel prize winners in the natural sciences (chemistry, physics, and medicine) from 1901 to 2008. What they found unequivocally refuted Einstein’s observation: the peak creative years for scientists occurs in their late 30s to early 40s, and has been remarkably consistent throughout the decades.

A look at indivdual Nobel laureates shows a somewhat different story. Although the average age has been fairly consistent, peak productivity occurs at a wide distribution of ages, across all the scientfiic disciplines (tap or hover over to see research descriptions):

What has changed over time is the number of years between a breakthrough discovery and when it is awarded a Nobel prize. Part of the reason for this is the threshold for accomplishment is much higher now than in the past. The 1912 Physics prize, for example, was given Gustaf Dalén, who devised a method to reduce fuel consumption in light houses (was 1912 a slow year for science?). In practical terms, this means that discoveries that used to be achievable in small workshops now require multi-decade capital construction projects.

The other reason for the delay is that there is much, much more science being done today. Gustav Källstrand, a senior curator at the Nobel Museum, estimated that 100 years ago there were about 1,000 physicists worldwide, compared to one million today. Other disciplines have experienced similar growth. With the field being so crowded, it takes significantly longer to stand out from the crowd.

One additional insight I found in Jones’ and Weinberg’s data is how collaborative science has become over time. The image of a lone scientist working in an isolated laboratory (a Hollywood staple) is largely a fantasy. The complexity of modern science demands an interdisciplinary approach. This is evidenced by the fact that virtually no science Nobels are awarded anymore to a single laureate. Indeed, most years’ prizes are now split three ways:

What does this mean for you? While accomplishment requires significant time, effort, and teamwork, it is not limited to any one age group. To paraphrase the old adage: Yesterday is the best time to start. Today is the second best.